Merry-go-round

For the past 15 years, places for drivers in Formula 1 have been at an absolute premium. Not since the first few races of 1995 have there been 26 cars on the grid, and often in the intervening period there have been 20 or less cars regularly lining up on race day. However, if everything goes as planned, Formula 1 will again have 13 teams for next season. Ironic, then, that with the extra places up for grabs, the regular close-season scrabble for seats is more confused than ever before.

A number of issues are to blame for this. First, everyone was waiting for the Fernando Alonso-Kimi Räikkönen-Ferrari triangle to resolve itself. However, once that was done, Kimi Räikkönen's future plans became the hub. Now, with the Finn seemingly set for a sabbatical year on the WRC circuit (although still making noises about a possible berth at Mercedes Grand Prix), the situation is still in flux, with everyone in the field loath to finalise anything lest another team pull out of the sport. Of particular interest is the future of Renault, where Robert Kubica is confirmed for next season but is nevertheless an attractive prospect for Mercedes (or anyone else) should he unexpectedly become available.

Today, then, I'm going to take a look at who is going where, who is probably going where and the delicate house of cards situation in general.

At least there's a nice easy start: McLaren-Mercedes have now confirmed Jenson Button as Lewis Hamilton's 2010 teammate. This British all-world champion superteam will undoubtably start pre-season testing as the favourites.

Mercedes Grand Prix, the rebadged Brawn team, have all but confirmed Nico Rosberg as one of their drivers. However, there's quite a scrabble for the place alongside him. Favourite at the moment is Nick Heidfeld, as rumours suggest that Stuttgart is keen for an all-German line-up. However, Kimi Räikkönen is available and lurking, although apparently seeking assurances that he'd have an opportunity to win the World Championship - an odd position, this, considering that the team are the reigning drivers and constructors champions. The third prong in this particular three-pointed star is Robert Kubica, who may find himself on the market should Renault elect to pull-out of the sport and is a younger and slightly better driver than Heidfeld. I personally anticipate that it will be Heidfeld alongside Rosberg for next season, on a 1 year contract only.

Red Bull Racing continue 2010 as before, with Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber. The only question is what engine they will use next season. Rumours that they were considering a switch to Mercedes have cooled since Merc's deal with Brawn, so it seems likely another season with the Renault powerplant is on the cards.

Ferrari began a lot of this chaos and uncertainty in the driver market, with Felipe Massa's health and unknown and Luca di Montezemolo as covetous of Fernando Alonso as an excited child on Christmas Eve despite Kimi Räikkönen's contract having another year to run. However, this saga was resolved relatively early, Massa and Alonso taking the seats in a formidable-looking line-up for 2010.

Williams, too, are now settled. The team will use Cosworth engines in place of Toyota units next year, and their cars will be driven by Rubens Barrichello and GP2 series champion Nico Hülkenberg, who is very much one to watch.

Renault are, in contrast, in a huge state of flux. Still uncertain if they will even continue in the sport beyond the end of this year, their financial and managerial stability was seriously rocked by the ludicrously-named Crashgate saga. However, there have been recent signs that there is fresh investment in the team, which can only be good for the health of the sport. Should they appear next season, Robert Kubica will drive their number 1 car. Alongside him is a big question mark. Test driver Romain Grosjean's chances seem to have been cooked by his unimpressive stint in the team at the end of this season. Depending on Mercedes' decisions, they could end up with Nick Heidfeld, although McLaren refugee Heikki Kovalainen returning to the team seem to be a better bet. Outside chances include Franck Montagny, the French driver who drove a handful of races for Super Aguri in 2006 and is an experienced tester at F1 level, and Bertrand Baguette, the Belgian driver who romped the World Series by Renault championship this year, winning a test in the R29 in the process. Another Francophile option would be Jules Bianchi, the highly-rated European Formula 3 champion, although as a member of Nicolas Todt's management stable he seems more likely to end up at a Ferrari-powered team, if at all.

Force India-Mercedes are the first team to have confirmed no-one at all in public or private. It is generally expected that one car will be driven by one of last year's drivers, Adrian Sutil or Vitantonio Liuzzi. Sutil would seem to be the faster option, Liuzzi the least expensive with regard to both salary and car rebuilds. The current favourite for the other car is Pedro de la Rosa, the hugely experienced Spanish driver who has been the McLaren number 3 for some years. With McLaren and Mercedes both having a stake in the team, it would seem to be a reasonable shot, although it could just as easily be a role Heikki Kovalainen could fill for identical reasons. Kovalainen would be the faster choice, but de la Rosa is an old and experienced head as well as being a hugely capable driver. Anyone expecting an Indian driver for the team will most likely be disappointed - the best bet would be Karun Chandok, but his achievements in lower formulae are trumped by too many rivals for him to be a serious contender. Also in the frame, hugely promising Scottish driver, Paul di Resta.

Toro Rosso-Ferrari have set out their store as a junior team and will, as such, remain truthful to their youth policy. Sébastien Buemi was impressive last season and will continue in 2010. He is likely to be joined by Jaime Alguersauri, who acquitted himself well in the second half of 2009. However, he also made a few costly mistakes, and the team may be tempted by one of Red Bull's many other youth stars. Brendon Hartley, the New Zealander who would make Jaime Alguerauri look like a wizened old shepherd is one of the youngest people to ever be granted a superlicence. A better bet may be Mirko Bortolotti, a very impressive young Italian driver with strong Ferrari links. Not only would he appeal to both engine supplier and team, but he is very, very fast and a successful test for the team - lined up for late this year - could swing things in his favour.

Now, onto the new teams. If they all make it, there will be four brand new outfits on the grid next season, plus the probable return of the Sauber name in place of Toyota. First up are Campos Meta-Cosworth, a Spanish team experienced in lower formulae and run by 1980s Minardi driver Adrian Campos. They have confirmed Bruno Senna in one of their cars, which has excited much of the sport. Senna hasn't been as electric on his way to the top table as his late uncle was, but as I have often said, a driver's CV is often little guide to Formula 1 performance. In the second car, the early rumours were for a Spanish driver, experienced Pedro de la Rosa being the obvious choice. However, he looks more likely to fit in elsewhere. This would leave Andy Soucek, the Formula 2 champion, as the obvious choice. He tests for Williams later in 2009 as his prize for winning the F2 series, and will give some indication of his capabilities. Whilst Soucek is confident of securing a drive for next season, the team may blanch at having two rookie drivers in a rookie team. In that case, they may well keep a weather eye on Nick Heidfeld's status at Mercedes.

Lotus-Cosworth are the newest of the new teams, backed by Malaysian money and with Mike Gascoyne designing their car. The hot tip is that Jarno Trulli will be their first driver, bringing with him a lot of experience which would prove invaluable. Takuma Sato and Anthony Davidson are believed to be the rivals for the second seat, although I would venture that they would be a better partnership than Trulli plus one or the other of them. Why do people keep hiring Jarno Trulli? Fairuz Fauzy is the hottest young Malaysian driver, 2nd placed in this year's World Series by Renault championship. He is tipped for the third driver role, rather than a race seat.

Manor-Cosworth are likely to start next season called Virgin Grand Prix but other than that are fairly well settled. An experienced team, a respected designer in former Simtek boss and Benetton pencilman Nick Wirth and solid sponsorship behind them. Of all the new teams, this is the one that no-one doubts will make it to the grid. When they do, Timo Glock will be driving the first car. He'd been tipped for the drive alongside Kubica at Renault but was seemingly put off by all the uncertainty at the team. He'll almost certainly be joined by old Renault test driver Lucas di Grassi from Brazil, a driver whom I think will acquit himself very well in F1.

USF1-Cosworth are the first American-owned Formula 1 team since drivers used to race with a lit cigarette in their mouths. There's been much scepticism from some quarters as to whether or not they will make it, but all signs coming from the team seem to be as positive and constructive as one might expect from an outfit managed by Peter Windsor, ex team manager at Williams and a Formula 1 journalist of huge experience and repute. The FIA inspected their American factory and were hugely impressed, whilst the team have backing from internet giant YouTube. In their cars, it could be absolutely anyone... of all the teams looking to be in F1 next year, USF1 have the least heat and rumours surrounding their likely line-up. The team have stated that they may very well not have an American driver, handy as most drivers from over the Atlantic are more interested in IndyCar and NASCAR careers. The best bets would be Marco Andretti, grandson of Mario and son of Michael, Graham Rahal, son of Bobby, or Danica Patrick, whose gender would be explosively exciting for the sport, which hasn't had a female pilot since 1992. More likely than any of these would be Jacques Villeneuve, the 1997 World Champion, who is actively seeking a return to F1. Maybe not as pretty as Danica Patrick, but the better driver. Personally, I'd like to see Villeneuve joined by Dario Franchitti, the twice Indycar champion and long overdue an F1 drive. His Kiwi rival Scott Dixon would also be a welcome addition to the sport.

Lastly, the Sauber team. The former BMW outfit were bought by Qadbak and listed as the season's first reserve on the official entry list. With Toyota gone, I expect a team of some guise, run by Peter Sauber and powered by Ferrari, to be on the grid next year, particularly with Jean Todt now in charge at the FIA... Todt was the man responsible for the deal with Sauber in the late 1990s for the Swiss team to use Ferrari power. In the cockpit could very well be Jacques Villeneuve, who spent 18 months with the team in the middle of this decade. Nick Heidfeld will almost certainly be looking at this team as a fallback option, so he's not out of the picture either. However, youngsters - particularly those managed by Jean Todt's son Nicolas - could find themselves in favour too, so don't discount people like Jules Bianchi or Mirko Bortolotti. Christian Klien, the ex-Red Bull driver, spent 3 years with the team as a tester and may also find his loyalty repaid.

But if I'm perfectly honest with you, I'd like Valentino Rossi and Sébastien Loeb to be in Formula 1 next year. Plus other dominant sportsmen, like Usain Bolt, or Phil 'The Power' Taylor.